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Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres

KickoffOct 12, 10:08 AMPhoenix
StatusFinal
LeagueNHL
Score3 - 5Florida Panthers P1 11:00 · P2 06:26 PP · P2 13:41 PPBuffalo Sabres P1 05:58 · P1 15:55 PP · P2 11:25 · P3 07:15 PP · P3 13:20
RestRest: Buffalo Sabres 2D · Florida Panthers 2Dtracked competitions only
Pinnacle-526 / +386
Novig- / +99900
Brad Marchand out · LegAleksander Barkov out · Lower BodyJonah Gadjovich out · Upper BodyJason Zucker out · AbdomenAlex Lyon out · Upper BodyConor Timmins out · Lower BodyTopias Leinonen out · Lower BodyJack Rathbone out · Undisclosed

Closing lines captured Oct 12, 10:14 AM.

Moneyline

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Buffalo Sabreswon---
-10000-50.5%10d
-+10449.0%
Florida Pantherslost---
+1500+716.1%?10d
--10451.0%

Spread model fair on 1 of 7 rows

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Buffalo Sabres -1.5wonArb -202.7%
-2000-75.0%10d
-
+370+12.0%?10d
-+32023.8%
Buffalo Sabres +1.5wonSynthetic hold 6.3%-
-588-5.7%10d
-
-588-5.7%10d
-41680.6%
Florida Panthers -1.5lost-
+365-9.9%10d
-
+370-9.0%10d
+41619.4%
Florida Panthers +1.5lost
+750+547.5%?10d
-
-556-10.1%10d
--32076.2%
Buffalo Sabres -2.5lostArb -10.6%
+120-37.5%10d
+195-16.2%10d
+100-43.2%10d
+25228.4%
Florida Panthers +2.5won
-167+14.5%?10d
-263-1.2%10d
-130+26.7%?10d
-25271.6%
Florida Panthers -3.5lost+1643m5.7%

Total Goals model fair on 1 of 13 rows

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 5.5wonSynthetic hold 5.3%
-115-11.1%10d
-114-10.6%10d
-110-9.2%10d
-110-9.2%10d
-110-9.2%10d
+11047.6%
Under 5.5lost
-115-1.9%10d
-115-1.9%10d
-120-4.0%10d
-114-1.4%10d
-120-4.0%10d
-11052.4%
Over 6wonSynthetic hold 4.4%
-102-4.7%10d
-106-6.6%10d
+10848.1%
Under 6lost
-118-4.0%10d
-118-4.0%10d
-10851.9%
Over 6.5wonSynthetic hold 3.5%
+112-6.3%10d
+114-5.5%10d
+110-7.2%11d
+115-5.0%10d
+12644.2%
Under 6.5lost
-139-4.0%10d
-135-2.9%10d
-133-2.3%11d
-141-4.5%10d
-12655.8%
Over 7won-13357.0%
Under 7lost+13343.0%
Over 7.5wonSynthetic hold 3.7%
+140-2.1%10d
+148+1.2%?10d
+154+3.6%?10d
+145-0.0%10d
+145-0.0%10d
+14540.8%
Under 7.5lost
-189-9.4%10d
-196-10.6%10d
-200-11.2%10d
-182-8.2%10d
-196-10.6%10d
-14559.2%
Over 8.5lostArb -26.0%
-105-5.6%10d
+108+0.6%?10d
+100-3.2%10d
-294-35.2%10d
+110+1.6%?10d
+10748.4%
Under 8.5won
-125-7.1%10d
-141-11.7%10d
-130-8.6%10d
+215+62.6%?10d
-145-12.8%10d
-10751.6%
Over 11.5lost+1520m6.2%

Public hit rates from the box scores sit under each player: context beside the price, never an input to the fair.

Player props 34 of 35 priced against a sharp source

Aaron Ekblad

  • Points 0.5L5 40% n 5L10 30% n 10L20 21% n 19vs 37% implied at BetMGM (-7 pts)Away 18% n 11 · After a loss 11% n 9

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5wonSynthetic hold 6.1%
+170-14.0%10d
+165-15.6%10d
+21431.9%
Under 0.5lost
-233-2.6%10d
-227-1.9%10d
-21468.1%
Over 1.5lost-

Anton Lundell

  • Points 0.5L5 40% n 5L10 30% n 10L20 30% n 20vs 45% implied at DraftKings (-15 pts)Away 36% n 14 · After a loss 40% n 10
  • Shots On Goal 0.5L5 100% n 5L10 100% n 10L20 80% n 20Away 79% n 14 · After a loss 80% n 10

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5wonSynthetic hold 3.8%
+105-15.7%10d
+120-9.5%10d
+14341.1%
Under 0.5lost
-141+0.7%10d
-164-5.2%10d
-14358.9%
Over 1.5lost-
Over 2.5lost-

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5won-
Over 1.5wonSynthetic hold 4.4%
-175-10.0%10d
-152-4.9%10d
-145-3.1%10d
-13457.3%
Under 1.5lost
+120-6.1%10d
+116-7.8%10d
+110-10.4%10d
+13442.7%
Over 2.5won-
Over 3.5lost-

Brady Tkachuk

  • Points 0.5L5 100% n 5L10 50% n 10L20 45% n 20vs 61% implied at BetMGM (-11 pts)Away 30% n 10 · After a loss 33% n 9
  • Shots On Goal 0.5L5 100% n 5L10 100% n 10L20 95% n 20Away 100% n 10 · After a loss 100% n 9

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5wonSynthetic hold 6.6%
-154-4.1%10d
-154-4.1%10d
-13958.1%
Under 0.5lost
+115-9.9%10d
+115-9.9%10d
+13941.9%
Over 1.5lost-
Over 2.5lost-
Under 2.5won-

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5won-
Over 1.5won-34677.6%
Under 1.5lost+34622.4%
Over 2.5wonSynthetic hold 6.4%
-175-8.7%10d
-175-8.7%10d
-13958.2%
Under 2.5lost
+132-3.0%10d
+130-3.8%10d
+13941.8%
Over 3.5lostSynthetic hold 3.3%
+105-14.8%10d
+126-6.1%10d
+110-12.7%10d
+14141.6%
Under 3.5won
-154-3.6%10d
-164-5.9%10d
-145-1.2%10d
-14158.4%
Over 4.5lost-
Over 5.5lost-

Carter Verhaeghe

  • Points 0.5L5 60% n 5L10 50% n 10L20 45% n 20vs 51% implied at DraftKings (-1 pts)Away 38% n 13 · After a loss 55% n 11
  • Shots On Goal 0.5L5 80% n 5L10 70% n 10L20 85% n 20Away 85% n 13 · After a loss 91% n 11

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5lostSynthetic hold 5.6%
-110-7.4%10d
-105-5.5%10d
+10648.5%
Under 0.5won
-120-5.7%10d
-130-8.8%10d
-10651.5%
Over 1.5lost-
Over 2.5lost-

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5lost-
Over 1.5lostSynthetic hold 6.6%
-222 10dno sharp price, can’t add
-189 10dno sharp price, can’t add
-
Under 1.5won
+135 10dno sharp price, can’t add
+140 10dno sharp price, can’t add
-
Over 2.5lostSynthetic hold 1.0%
+120-4.5%10d
-105-15.3%10d
+13043.4%
Under 2.5won
-156-7.2%10d
-125+1.8%10d
-13056.6%
Over 3.5lost-
Over 4.5lost-

Gustav Forsling

  • Points 0.5L5 20% n 5L10 20% n 10L20 26% n 19vs 27% implied at DraftKings (-7 pts)Away 31% n 13 · After a loss 22% n 9
  • Shots On Goal 0.5L5 80% n 5L10 80% n 10L20 89% n 19Away 85% n 13 · After a loss 89% n 9

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5lostSynthetic hold 0.2%
+195-16.3%10d
+275+6.4%?10d
+25228.4%
Under 0.5won
-278-2.6%10d
-385-9.8%10d
-25271.6%
Over 1.5lost-

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5won-
Over 1.5wonSynthetic hold 5.8%
+110-10.7%10d
+125-4.3%10d
+13542.5%
Under 1.5lost
-161-6.9%10d
-169-8.6%10d
-13557.5%
Over 2.5lost-
Over 3.5lost-

Jack Quinn

  • Points 0.5L5 80% n 5L10 60% n 10L20 45% n 20vs 57% implied at BetMGM (+3 pts)Home 36% n 11 · After a loss 60% n 10
  • Shots On Goal 0.5L5 100% n 5L10 100% n 10L20 90% n 20Home 91% n 11 · After a loss 90% n 10

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5wonSynthetic hold 5.9%
-135-9.2%10d
-145-11.8%10d
-10952.2%
Under 0.5lost
+100-4.4%10d
+105-2.0%10d
+10947.8%
Over 1.5won-
Over 2.5lost-

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5won-
Over 1.5lost-
Over 2.5lostSynthetic hold 5.8%
+110-3.5%10d
+110-3.5%10d
+100-8.1%10d
+11845.9%
Under 2.5won
-161-12.4%10d
-145-8.6%10d
-141-7.6%10d
-11854.1%
Over 3.5lost-
Over 4.5lost-

Josh Doan

  • Points 0.5L5 40% n 5L10 20% n 10L20 45% n 20vs 45% implied at DraftKings (-25 pts)Home 36% n 11 · After a loss 40% n 10
  • Shots On Goal 0.5L5 80% n 5L10 80% n 10L20 85% n 20Home 91% n 11 · After a loss 80% n 10

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5wonSynthetic hold 2.8%
+100-14.1%10d
+120-5.5%10d
+13343.0%
Under 0.5lost
-135-0.8%10d
-164-8.2%10d
-13357.0%
Over 1.5lost-
Over 2.5lost-

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5won-
Over 1.5wonSynthetic hold 3.8%
-164-10.6%10d
-145-6.2%10d
-135-3.4%10d
-12555.5%
Under 1.5lost
+115-4.3%10d
+110-6.5%10d
+100-11.0%10d
+12544.5%
Over 2.5won+16338.0%
Under 2.5lost-16362.0%
Over 3.5lost-
Over 4.5lost-

Josh Norris

  • Points 0.5L5 40% n 5L10 30% n 10L20 30% n 20vs 41% implied at DraftKings (-11 pts)Home 8% n 12 · After a loss 40% n 10
  • Shots On Goal 0.5L5 60% n 5L10 60% n 10L20 70% n 20Home 67% n 12 · After a loss 60% n 10

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5lostSynthetic hold 1.4%
+115-12.1%10d
+145+0.2%?10d
+14540.9%
Under 0.5won
-154-2.5%10d
-196-10.7%10d
-14559.1%
Over 1.5lost-
Over 2.5lost-

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5won-
Over 1.5wonSynthetic hold 6.3%
+100-11.6%10d
+106-8.9%10d
+105-9.4%10d
+12644.2%
Under 1.5lost
-145-5.7%10d
-139-4.0%10d
-141-4.6%10d
-12655.8%
Over 2.5lost-
Over 3.5lost-

Konsta Helenius

  • Shots On Goal 1.5L5 20% n 5L10 40% n 10L20 55% n 20Home 50% n 10 · After a loss 56% n 9

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 1.5lost-11954.4%
Under 1.5won+11945.6%
Over 2.5lost-
Over 3.5lost-

Matthew Tkachuk

  • Points 0.5L5 100% n 5L10 90% n 10L20 70% n 20vs 66% implied at DraftKings (+24 pts)Away 67% n 12 · After a loss 70% n 10
  • Shots On Goal 0.5L5 100% n 5L10 100% n 10L20 90% n 20Away 92% n 12 · After a loss 90% n 10

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5wonSynthetic hold 6.6%
-200-5.8%10d
-196-5.2%10d
-16962.8%
Under 0.5lost
+145-8.8%10d
+145-8.8%10d
+16937.2%
Over 1.5lost-
Over 2.5lost-
Under 2.5won-

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5won-
Over 1.5won-
Over 2.5lostSynthetic hold 3.1%
-125-1.3%10d
-145-7.4%10d
-145-7.4%10d
-12154.8%
Under 2.5won
-115-15.5%10d
+110-5.1%10d
+110-5.1%10d
+12145.2%
Over 3.5lost-
Over 4.5lost-

Noah Östlund

  • Points 0.5L5 60% n 5L10 50% n 10L20 45% n 20vs 43% implied at DraftKings (+7 pts)Home 40% n 10 · After a loss 67% n 9
  • Shots On Goal 0.5L5 100% n 5L10 100% n 10L20 75% n 20Home 80% n 10 · After a loss 89% n 9

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5wonSynthetic hold 4.5%
+125-7.0%10d
+135-2.8%10d
+14241.3%
Under 0.5lost
-164-5.6%10d
-185-9.7%10d
-14258.7%
Over 1.5lost-

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5won-
Over 1.5wonSynthetic hold 7.0%
+110-4.3%10d
+11945.6%
Under 1.5lost
-149-9.1%10d
-11954.4%
Over 2.5won-
Over 3.5lost-

Owen Power

  • Points 0.5L5 40% n 5L10 50% n 10L20 40% n 20vs 40% implied at DraftKings (+10 pts)Home 45% n 11 · After a loss 40% n 10
  • Shots On Goal 1.5L5 60% n 5L10 50% n 10L20 25% n 20vs 47% implied at BetMGM (+3 pts)Home 27% n 11 · After a loss 20% n 10

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5wonSynthetic hold 5.1%
+140-7.3%10d
+150-3.4%10d
+15938.6%
Under 0.5lost
-189-6.1%10d
-204-8.6%10d
-15961.4%
Over 1.5won-
Over 2.5lost-

Shots On Goal no fair line · Synthetic hold 7.9% across your best prices

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 1.5lost
+115 10dno sharp price, can’t add
-
Under 1.5won
-164 10dno sharp price, can’t add
-

Peyton Krebs

  • Points 0.5L5 20% n 5L10 30% n 10L20 25% n 20vs 35% implied at DraftKings (-5 pts)Home 27% n 11 · After a loss 30% n 10

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5won
+185-0.3%10d
+18635.0%
Under 0.5lost
-256-9.6%10d
-18665.0%

Rasmus Dahlin

  • Points 0.5L5 60% n 5L10 70% n 10L20 60% n 20vs 64% implied at BetMGM (+6 pts)Home 62% n 13 · After a loss 78% n 9
  • Shots On Goal 0.5L5 100% n 5L10 100% n 10L20 100% n 20Home 100% n 13 · After a loss 100% n 9

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5wonSynthetic hold 5.9%
-175-8.3%10d
-185-10.0%10d
-14058.4%
Under 0.5lost
+130-4.3%10d
+135-2.3%10d
+14041.6%
Over 1.5lost-
Over 2.5lost-
Under 2.5won-

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5won-
Over 1.5won-
Over 2.5wonSynthetic hold 5.7%
-115-10.3%10d
-102-5.0%10d
-105-6.5%10d
+10948.0%
Under 2.5lost
-125-6.3%10d
-128-7.4%10d
-125-6.3%10d
-10952.0%
Over 3.5won-
Over 4.5lost-

Sam Bennett

  • Points 0.5L5 20% n 5L10 40% n 10L20 45% n 20vs 55% implied at BetMGM (-15 pts)Away 38% n 13 · After a loss 30% n 10
  • Shots On Goal 0.5L5 100% n 5L10 100% n 10L20 90% n 20Away 92% n 13 · After a loss 100% n 10

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5lostSynthetic hold 3.3%
-120-8.1%10d
-141-14.1%10d
-10150.2%
Under 0.5won
-110-5.0%10d
+105+2.0%?10d
+10149.8%
Over 1.5lost-
Over 2.5lost-
Under 2.5won-

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5won-
Over 1.5lost-
Over 2.5lostSynthetic hold 5.3%
+105-6.7%10d
+112-3.5%10d
+100-8.9%10d
+12045.5%
Under 2.5won
-154-10.1%10d
-147-8.5%10d
-141-6.9%10d
-12054.5%
Over 3.5lost-
Over 4.5lost-

Sam Reinhart

  • Points 0.5L5 80% n 5L10 40% n 10L20 55% n 20vs 60% implied at DraftKings (-20 pts)Away 42% n 12 · After a loss 70% n 10
  • Shots On Goal 0.5L5 80% n 5L10 90% n 10L20 90% n 20Away 83% n 12 · After a loss 100% n 10

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5wonSynthetic hold 5.1%
-161-5.8%10d
-149-2.9%10d
-13958.1%
Under 0.5lost
+120-7.9%10d
+110-12.1%10d
+13941.9%
Over 1.5won-
Over 2.5lost-
Under 2.5won-

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5won-
Over 1.5won-16261.9%
Under 1.5lost+16238.1%
Over 2.5lostSynthetic hold 5.2%
+110-10.0%10d
+116-7.4%10d
+110-10.0%10d
+13342.9%
Under 2.5won
-161-7.4%10d
-152-5.1%10d
-145-3.4%10d
-13357.1%
Over 3.5lost-
Over 4.5lost-

Seth Jones

  • Points 0.5L5 100% n 5L10 60% n 10L20 60% n 20vs 50% implied at DraftKings (+10 pts)Away 62% n 13 · After a loss 64% n 11
  • Shots On Goal 0.5L5 100% n 5L10 100% n 10L20 90% n 20Away 85% n 13 · After a loss 91% n 11

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5wonSynthetic hold 6.1%
-105-9.9%10d
+100-7.6%10d
+11646.2%
Under 0.5lost
-130-4.8%10d
-135-6.4%10d
-11653.8%
Over 1.5won-
Over 2.5lost-

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5won-
Over 1.5wonSynthetic hold 3.5%
-135-14.1%10d
-108-4.7%10d
-105-3.8%10d
+10349.4%
Under 1.5lost
-110-3.3%10d
-120-7.3%10d
-130-10.4%10d
-10350.6%
Over 2.5won+30324.8%
Under 2.5lost-30375.2%
Over 3.5won-

Tage Thompson

  • Points 0.5L5 60% n 5L10 60% n 10L20 60% n 20vs 67% implied at BetMGM (-7 pts)Home 45% n 11 · After a loss 80% n 10
  • Shots On Goal 1.5L5 60% n 5L10 80% n 10L20 80% n 20Home 73% n 11 · After a loss 90% n 10

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5wonSynthetic hold 5.6%
-200-5.3%10d
-208-6.5%10d
-17163.2%
Under 0.5lost
+145-9.7%10d
+155-6.1%10d
+17136.8%
Over 1.5won-
Under 1.5lost-
Over 2.5lost-
Under 2.5won-

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 1.5lost-
Over 2.5lost-17964.1%
Under 2.5won+17935.9%
Over 3.5lostSynthetic hold 4.0%
+105-7.1%10d
+114-3.0%10d
+100-9.4%10d
+12145.3%
Under 3.5won
-154-9.8%10d
-147-8.1%10d
-135-4.9%10d
-12154.7%
Over 4.5lost-
Over 5.5lost-

Zach Benson

  • Points 0.5L5 80% n 5L10 50% n 10L20 55% n 20vs 47% implied at DraftKings (+3 pts)Home 27% n 11 · After a loss 60% n 10
  • Shots On Goal 0.5L5 80% n 5L10 90% n 10L20 95% n 20Home 100% n 11 · After a loss 100% n 10

Points

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5wonSynthetic hold 1.1%
-111-13.5%10d
+115-2.1%10d
+12045.5%
Under 0.5lost
-120-0.3%10d
-154-10.1%10d
-12054.5%
Over 1.5lost-
Over 2.5lost-

Shots On Goal

SelectionBetMGMFanDuelDraftKingsCaesarsFanaticsFair
Over 0.5won-
Over 1.5wonSynthetic hold 4.0%
-130-5.1%10d
-132-5.6%10d
-149-10.4%10d
-11653.6%
Under 1.5lost
-111-11.9%10d
+102-6.3%10d
+110-2.6%10d
+11646.4%
Over 2.5lost-
Over 3.5lost-

Line movement

Buffalo Sabres to win · since 9:34 AM

betmgm-110
fanduel-111
draftkings-120
williamhill_us-10000
fanatics-115

Over 5.5 · since 4:54 AM

betmgm-115
fanduel-114
draftkings-110
williamhill_us-110
fanatics-110