Fair sheet (model)
Poisson / Dixon-Coles fitted to pinnacle + betfair_ex_eu's match result and total. League calibration: not yet (verify-only). This match: no Pinnacle BTTS or team-total line to check against. Compare with the book on your phone; nothing here is scanned.
| Match result & both teams to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Lillestrom & yes | +393 | 20.3% |
| Draw & yes | +384 | 20.7% |
| Torreense & yes | +479 | 17.3% |
| Both teams to score & total goals | fair | prob |
|---|
| Yes & over 2.5 | +123 | 44.8% |
| Yes & under 2.5 | +645 | 13.4% |
| No & under 2.5 | +199 | 33.5% |
| Yes & over 3.5 | +255 | 28.2% |
| Yes & under 3.5 | +233 | 30.1% |
| No & under 3.5 | +156 | 39.1% |
| Either team to win & both teams to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Yes | +166 | 37.5% |
| Double chance & both teams to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Lillestrom or draw & yes | +144 | 40.9% |
| Draw or Torreense & yes | +164 | 37.9% |
| Lillestrom or Torreense & yes | +166 | 37.5% |
| Team to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Lillestrom to score | -337 | 77.1% |
| Torreense to score | -278 | 73.5% |
| First team to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Lillestrom * | +106 | 48.6% |
| Torreense * | +128 | 43.8% |
| No goal | +1214 | 7.6% |
| Exact goals | fair | prob |
|---|
| 0 | +1214 | 7.6% |
| 1 | +619 | 13.9% |
| 2 | +294 | 25.4% |
| 3 | +349 | 22.3% |
| 4 | +541 | 15.6% |
| 5 | +1045 | 8.7% |
| 6 or more | +1431 | 6.5% |
| Half time / full time | fair | prob |
|---|
| Lillestrom / Lillestrom * | +324 | 23.6% |
| Lillestrom / Draw * | +2079 | 4.6% |
| Lillestrom / Torreense * | +4816 | 2.0% |
| Draw / Lillestrom * | +602 | 14.2% |
| Draw / Draw * | +481 | 17.2% |
| Draw / Torreense * | +719 | 12.2% |
| Torreense / Lillestrom * | +4237 | 2.3% |
| Torreense / Draw * | +2077 | 4.6% |
| Torreense / Torreense * | +420 | 19.2% |
* first team to score splits the first goal by scoring rate (an approximation); half time / full time assumes independent halves.
Line movement
Lillestrom to win · since 10:01 AM
Over 2.5 · since 10:01 AM