Fair sheet (model)
Poisson / Dixon-Coles fitted to pinnacle + betfair_ex_eu's match result and total. League calibration: not yet (verify-only). This match: no Pinnacle BTTS or team-total line to check against. Compare with the book on your phone; nothing here is scanned.
| Match result & both teams to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Crystal Palace & yes | +296 | 25.3% |
| Draw & yes | +472 | 17.5% |
| Lech Poznań & yes | +1054 | 8.7% |
| Both teams to score & total goals | fair | prob |
|---|
| Yes & over 2.5 | +155 | 39.3% |
| Yes & under 2.5 | +725 | 12.1% |
| No & under 2.5 | +175 | 36.3% |
| Yes & over 3.5 | +307 | 24.6% |
| Yes & under 3.5 | +273 | 26.8% |
| No & under 3.5 | +129 | 43.8% |
| Either team to win & both teams to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Yes | +195 | 33.9% |
| Double chance & both teams to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Crystal Palace or draw & yes | +134 | 42.7% |
| Draw or Lech Poznań & yes | +282 | 26.1% |
| Crystal Palace or Lech Poznań & yes | +195 | 33.9% |
| Team to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Crystal Palace to score | -526 | 84.0% |
| Lech Poznań to score | -147 | 59.5% |
| First team to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Crystal Palace * | -161 | 61.7% |
| Lech Poznań * | +229 | 30.4% |
| No goal | +1171 | 7.9% |
| Exact goals | fair | prob |
|---|
| 0 | +1171 | 7.9% |
| 1 | +570 | 14.9% |
| 2 | +290 | 25.6% |
| 3 | +352 | 22.1% |
| 4 | +560 | 15.2% |
| 5 | +1105 | 8.3% |
| 6 or more | +1571 | 6.0% |
| Half time / full time | fair | prob |
|---|
| Crystal Palace / Crystal Palace * | +171 | 37.0% |
| Crystal Palace / Draw * | +2543 | 3.8% |
| Crystal Palace / Lech Poznań * | +8992 | 1.1% |
| Draw / Crystal Palace * | +414 | 19.4% |
| Draw / Draw * | +527 | 16.0% |
| Draw / Lech Poznań * | +1338 | 7.0% |
| Lech Poznań / Crystal Palace * | +3814 | 2.6% |
| Lech Poznań / Draw * | +2526 | 3.8% |
| Lech Poznań / Lech Poznań * | +960 | 9.4% |
* first team to score splits the first goal by scoring rate (an approximation); half time / full time assumes independent halves.
Line movement
Crystal Palace to win · since 10:01 AM
Over 2.5 · since 10:01 AM