Fair sheet (model)
Poisson / Dixon-Coles fitted to pinnacle's match result and total. League calibration: clean. This match: no Pinnacle BTTS or team-total line to check against. Compare with the book on your phone; nothing here is scanned.
| Match result & both teams to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Wrexham AFC & yes | +361 | 21.7% |
| Draw & yes | +460 | 17.9% |
| Burnley & yes | +762 | 11.6% |
| Both teams to score & total goals | fair | prob |
|---|
| Yes & over 2.5 | +155 | 39.2% |
| Yes & under 2.5 | +734 | 12.0% |
| No & under 2.5 | +153 | 39.6% |
| Yes & over 3.5 | +325 | 23.5% |
| Yes & under 3.5 | +262 | 27.6% |
| No & under 3.5 | +119 | 45.7% |
| Either team to win & both teams to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Yes | +200 | 33.3% |
| Double chance & both teams to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Wrexham AFC or draw & yes | +153 | 39.6% |
| Draw or Burnley & yes | +239 | 29.5% |
| Wrexham AFC or Burnley & yes | +200 | 33.3% |
| Team to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Wrexham AFC to score | -383 | 79.3% |
| Burnley to score | -182 | 64.5% |
| First team to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Wrexham AFC * | -127 | 55.9% |
| Burnley * | +172 | 36.8% |
| No goal | +1262 | 7.3% |
| Exact goals | fair | prob |
|---|
| 0 | +1262 | 7.3% |
| 1 | +421 | 19.2% |
| 2 | +299 | 25.0% |
| 3 | +359 | 21.8% |
| 4 | +603 | 14.2% |
| 5 | +1246 | 7.4% |
| 6 or more | +1905 | 5.0% |
| Half time / full time | fair | prob |
|---|
| Wrexham AFC / Wrexham AFC * | +233 | 30.0% |
| Wrexham AFC / Draw * | +1978 | 4.8% |
| Wrexham AFC / Burnley * | +6470 | 1.5% |
| Draw / Wrexham AFC * | +480 | 17.3% |
| Draw / Draw * | +542 | 15.6% |
| Draw / Burnley * | +931 | 9.7% |
| Burnley / Wrexham AFC * | +3782 | 2.6% |
| Burnley / Draw * | +1978 | 4.8% |
| Burnley / Burnley * | +628 | 13.7% |
* first team to score splits the first goal by scoring rate (an approximation); half time / full time assumes independent halves.
Line movement
Wrexham AFC to win · since 10:01 AM
Over 2.5 · since 10:01 AM