Fair sheet (model)
Poisson / Dixon-Coles fitted to pinnacle's match result and total. League calibration: clean. This match: no Pinnacle BTTS or team-total line to check against. Compare with the book on your phone; nothing here is scanned.
| Match result & both teams to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Brest & yes | +1319 | 7.0% |
| Draw & yes | +659 | 13.2% |
| Paris Saint Germain & yes | +162 | 38.2% |
| Both teams to score & total goals | fair | prob |
|---|
| Yes & over 2.5 | -105 | 51.2% |
| Yes & under 2.5 | +1283 | 7.2% |
| No & under 2.5 | +348 | 22.3% |
| Yes & over 3.5 | +158 | 38.7% |
| Yes & under 3.5 | +409 | 19.6% |
| No & under 3.5 | +223 | 31.0% |
| Either team to win & both teams to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Yes | +121 | 45.2% |
| Double chance & both teams to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Brest or draw & yes | +394 | 20.2% |
| Draw or Paris Saint Germain & yes | -105 | 51.3% |
| Brest or Paris Saint Germain & yes | +121 | 45.2% |
| Team to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Brest to score | -165 | 62.3% |
| Paris Saint Germain to score | -1337 | 93.0% |
| First team to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Brest * | +285 | 26.0% |
| Paris Saint Germain * | -245 | 71.0% |
| No goal | +3199 | 3.0% |
| Exact goals | fair | prob |
|---|
| 0 | +3199 | 3.0% |
| 1 | +1046 | 8.7% |
| 2 | +462 | 17.8% |
| 3 | +374 | 21.1% |
| 4 | +421 | 19.2% |
| 5 | +615 | 14.0% |
| 6 or more | +519 | 16.2% |
| Half time / full time | fair | prob |
|---|
| Brest / Brest * | +1558 | 6.0% |
| Brest / Draw * | +2886 | 3.3% |
| Brest / Paris Saint Germain * | +2710 | 3.6% |
| Draw / Brest * | +2310 | 4.2% |
| Draw / Draw * | +1018 | 8.9% |
| Draw / Paris Saint Germain * | +420 | 19.2% |
| Paris Saint Germain / Brest * | +10292 | 1.0% |
| Paris Saint Germain / Draw * | +2894 | 3.3% |
| Paris Saint Germain / Paris Saint Germain * | -102 | 50.4% |
* first team to score splits the first goal by scoring rate (an approximation); half time / full time assumes independent halves.
Line movement
Brest to win · since 10:01 AM
Over 3.5 · since 10:01 AM