Fair sheet (model)
Poisson / Dixon-Coles fitted to pinnacle's match result and total. League calibration: clean. This match: no Pinnacle BTTS or team-total line to check against. Compare with the book on your phone; nothing here is scanned.
| Match result & both teams to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Manchester United & yes | +376 | 21.0% |
| Draw & yes | +418 | 19.3% |
| Manchester City & yes | +248 | 28.7% |
| Both teams to score & total goals | fair | prob |
|---|
| Yes & over 2.5 | -148 | 59.8% |
| Yes & under 2.5 | +977 | 9.3% |
| No & under 2.5 | +361 | 21.7% |
| Yes & over 3.5 | +128 | 43.9% |
| Yes & under 3.5 | +297 | 25.2% |
| No & under 3.5 | +268 | 27.2% |
| Either team to win & both teams to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Yes | +101 | 49.7% |
| Double chance & both teams to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Manchester United or draw & yes | +148 | 40.3% |
| Draw or Manchester City & yes | +108 | 48.0% |
| Manchester United or Manchester City & yes | +101 | 49.7% |
| Team to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Manchester United to score | -404 | 80.2% |
| Manchester City to score | -598 | 85.7% |
| First team to score | fair | prob |
|---|
| Manchester United * | +127 | 44.0% |
| Manchester City * | -112 | 52.8% |
| No goal | +3028 | 3.2% |
| Exact goals | fair | prob |
|---|
| 0 | +3028 | 3.2% |
| 1 | +964 | 9.4% |
| 2 | +444 | 18.4% |
| 3 | +368 | 21.4% |
| 4 | +425 | 19.0% |
| 5 | +638 | 13.6% |
| 6 or more | +564 | 15.1% |
| Half time / full time | fair | prob |
|---|
| Manchester United / Manchester United * | +422 | 19.1% |
| Manchester United / Draw * | +1819 | 5.2% |
| Manchester United / Manchester City * | +2867 | 3.4% |
| Draw / Manchester United * | +847 | 10.6% |
| Draw / Draw * | +760 | 11.6% |
| Draw / Manchester City * | +615 | 14.0% |
| Manchester City / Manchester United * | +3684 | 2.6% |
| Manchester City / Draw * | +1819 | 5.2% |
| Manchester City / Manchester City * | +254 | 28.2% |
* first team to score splits the first goal by scoring rate (an approximation); half time / full time assumes independent halves.
Line movement
Manchester United to win · since 2:04 AM